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On Planning for Development: employment, unemployment and wages Editor: Dr. Róbinson Rojas Sandford

From ILO, 2013

Global Employment Trends 2013
Recovering from a second jobs dip

This Global Employment Trends report for 2013 is a special edition, warranted by the resurgence of the crisis in 2012. The year 2011 saw a tapering off of the recovery, followed by a dip in both growth and employment in 2012. Unemployment increased by a further 4 million over the course of 2012.
The report examines the crisis in labour markets of both advanced economies and developing economies. The epicentre of the crisis has been the advanced economies, accounting for half of the total increase in unemployment of 28 million since the onset of the crisis. But the pronounced double dip in the advanced economies has had significant spillovers into the labour markets of developing economies as well. A quarter of the increase of 4 million in global unemployment in 2012 has been in the advanced economies, while three quarters has been in other regions, with marked effects in East Asia, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report estimates the quantitative and qualitative indicators of global and regional labour markets and discusses the macroeconomic factors affecting the labour markets in order to explore possible policy responses.

From UNCTAD, 2010,"Trade and Development Report", Chapter III, pp. 77-97

Macroeconomic Aspects of Job Creation and Unemployment
A. Introduction: globalization and employment

Most observers acknowledge that the period from the early 1990s until around 2007 delivered some economic successes, such as satisfactory or even rapid output growth in a number of developing countries (although average growth rates were still lower than in the 1960s and 1970s) and relatively low inflation. However, all of them agree that labour market outcomes were generally unsatisfactory in this period of accelerated globalization: employment typically grew at much lower rates than output – or in some cases did not grow at all – and the share of wages in national income generally declined in both developed and developing countries.

In this chapter, it is argued that employment creation and a declining wage share are interdependent, in the sense that if wage growth does not keep pace with productivity growth, the expansion of domestic demand and employment creation will be constrained, and that this constraint can only be lifted temporarily, if at all, by reliance on external demand.


From ILO, 2013

World of Work Report 2013
Repairing the economic and social fabric


From ILO, 2012

World of Work 2012
Better jobs for a better economy


From ILO - 31 October 2011

World of Work Report 2011 - 31 October 2011
Market turbulence, employment and social unrest: Trends and outlook.

The next few months will be crucial for avoiding a dramatic downturn in employment and a further significant aggravation of social unrest. The world economy, which had started to recover from the global crisis, has entered a new phase of economic weakening. Economic growth in major advanced economies has come to a halt and some countries have re-entered recession, notably in Europe. Growth has also slowed down in large emerging and developing countries.
Based on past experience, it will take around six months for the ongoing economic weakening to impact labour markets. Indeed, in the immediate aftermath of the global crisis it was possible to delay or attenuate job losses to a certain extent, but this time the slowdown may have a much quicker and stronger impact on employment. After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, many viable enterprises expected a temporary slowdown in activity and so were inclined to retain workers. Now, three years into the crisis, the business environment has become more uncertain and the economic outlook continues to deteriorate. Job retention may therefore be less widespread...

World of Work Report 2010
From one crisis to the next?


World of Work Report 2009
The Global Jobs Crisis and Beyond


World of Work Report 2008
Income Inequality in the age of Financial Globalization







From The Globalist
The Global Unemployment Crisis: Costs, Causes, Cures
Prakash Loungani - Monday, November 15, 2010

Among the most pernicious effects of the financial crisis is unemployment, which is at devastatingly high levels in many countries around the world. The IMF's Prakash Loungani outlines the main factors behind this crisis — and lays out the steps governments need to take to resolve the issue and avoid it in the future.

Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of U.S. Congress on “Long-Term Unemployment: Causes, Consequences and Solutions”
April 2010 - Till von Wachter
Associate Professor of Economics - Columbia University

The Human Cost of Recessions: Assessing It, Reducing It
Mai Dao and Prakash Loungani - November 2010

Recessions leave scars on the labor market; the Great Recession of 2007–09 has left gaping wounds. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present. Among countries with unemployment data in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, there has been an increase of over 20 million unemployed people since 2007. The ILO estimates that globally the increase is over 30 million...three-fourths of this increase in the number of unemployed people occurred in the “advanced” economies (the term used in the WEO to denote high per capita income countries) and the remainder among emerging market economies. The unemployment rate increased by 3 percentage points in advanced countries since 2007 and by 0.25 percentage points in emerging markets). In contrast, in low-income countries (LIC) on the whole, unemployment fell during the Great Recession.

Economic scarring - The long-term impacts of the recession
By John Irons - Economic Policy Institute -2009

Economic recessions are often portrayed as short-term events. However, as a substantial body of economic literature shows, the consequences of high unemployment, falling incomes, and reduced economic activity can have lasting consequences. For example, job loss and falling incomes can force families to delay or forgo a college education for their children. Frozen credit markets and depressed consumer spending can stop the creation of otherwise vibrant small businesses. Larger companies may delay or reduce spending on R&D.
In each of these cases, an economic recession can lead to “scarring”—that is, long-lasting damage to individuals’ economic situations and the economy more broadly. This report examines some of the evidence demonstrating the long-run consequences of recessions. Findings include:...

The Stagnating Labor Market
Arjun Jayadev, Mike Konczal | The Roosevelt Institute
September 2010

Although the unemployment number remains high it isn’t a full picture of the terrible situation in the (U.S.)labor market. The population that is out of the labor force and no longer trying to find a job is steadily increasing, and the normal mechanisms for those people to reenter employment have collapsed.

United States: selected issues (on unemployment)
Prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Oya Celasun, Thomas Dowling, Marcello Estevăo, Geoffrey Keim, Martin Sommer, and Evridiki Tsounta (all WHD)
Approved by Western Hemisphere Department - International Monetary Fund
July 12, 2010

This selected issues paper on United States was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 12, 2010. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of United States or the Executive Board of the IMF.
The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.

Inequality, Leverage and Crises
by M. Kumhof (IMF) and R. Ranciere (Paris School of Economics and IMF)
September 29, 2010

The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of distributional conflict. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining power over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group’s bargaining power is more effective.

Rethinking Monetary and Financial Policy: Practical suggestions for monitoring financial stability while generating employment and poverty reduction
Gerald Epstein, Professor of Economics and Co-Director Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Employment Sector - Employment Working Paper No. 37 - 2009
International Labour Office - Geneva

The landscape of development is changing for all countries as a result of the impact of the global financial crisis, and in this context policy discussions in developing countries are increasingly focusing on optimizing policy responses...
This paper... is an important contribution to the new thinking and priorities on the role of monetary and fiscal policies, and their impact on employment and poverty reduction...
This paper provides important ideas about the wide range of policy options available for adaptation to specific country contexts. It is a milestone in re-thinking the monetary and fiscal policy landscape, the role of the State and of the Central Banks in maximizing the employment impact of various policy instruments...



from the International Labour Organization (ILO)

Global Employment Trends for Youth, August 2010

The report presents the latest global and regional labour market trends for youth and specifically explores how the global economic crisis has exposed the vulnerabilities of young people around the world. In developed economies, the crisis has led to the highest youth unemployment rates on record, while in developing economies – where 90 per cent of the world’s youth live – the crisis threatens to exacerbates the challenges of rampant decent work deficits, adding to the number of young people who find themselves stuck in working poverty and thus prolonging the cycle of working poverty through at least another generation.

 ILO:
Global Employment Trends and Related Reports
  1. Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department (EMP/ELM)
    1. Employment Trends (EMP/TRENDS)
    2. Policy Analysis and Research (EMP/ANALYSIS)
  2. Employment Policy Department (EMP/POLICY)
    1. Country Employment Policy (EMP/CEPOL)
    2. Employment-Intensive Investment Programme (EIIP)
  3. Job Creation and Enterprise Development Department (EMP/ENTERPRISE)
    1. Boosting Employment through Small Enterprise Development (EMP/SEED)
    2. Cooperatives (EMP/COOP)
    3. Multinational Enterprises (EMP/MULTI)
  4. Skills and Employability Department (EMP/SKILLS)
  5. ILO Programme on Crisis Response and Reconstruction (ILO/CRISIS)
  6. Social Finance

From U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics - October 2009

The employment situation - September 2009
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployment persons has increased by 7.6 millions to 15.1 million, and the unemployment rate has doubled to 9.8 percent. In December 2007 the number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million.

Employment Situation - August 06, 2010
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent. Federal government employment fell, as 143,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 71,000. In July 2010 the number of unemployed was 14.6 million.
Full text: (HTML) (PDF)


From ILO 2008
Executive Summary
The global employment challenge
A. K. Ghose, N. Majid and C. Ernst

The world faces a huge challenge of creating productive jobs for its expanding labour force, says a new study by three ILO economists. This challenge is global in three ways.
First, inadequate availability of productive jobs is now a worldwide phenomenon, affecting both North and South.
Second, global forces such as cross-border flows of trade, capital and labour now have important consequences for employment in individual countries.
Third, international economic policies are now almost as important as national policies for expanding opportunities for productive employment in less developed countries, where most of the world’s workers live and where almost all of its new workers will live.
The study sets out in detail the nature and magnitude of this employment challenge. It provides an empirical assessment of the current employment situation in the world, a review of developments since 1990, an analysis of the interactions among structural factors, global forces and national policies that have affected employment, and ideas on required policy responses at international and national levels.


From the  International Labour Organization

World of Work Report 2008
Income Inequality in the age of Financial Globalization

The ongoing global economic slowdown is aff ecting low-income groups disproportionately. Th is development comes aft er a long expansionary phase where income inequality was already on the rise in the majority of countries.
● The recent period of economic expansion was accompanied by substantial employment growth across most regions. Between the early 1990s and 2007, world employment grew by around 30 per cent. However, there was considerable variation in labour market performance between countries. In addition, not all individuals shared equally in the employment gains. In a number of regions, women continued to represent a disproportionate share of non-employed persons – reaching nearly 80 per cent in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia and the Pacific.
● Employment growth has also occurred alongside a redistribution of income away from labour. In 51 out of 73 countries for which data are available, the share of wages in total income declined over the past two decades. The largest decline in the share of wages in GDP took place in Latin America and the Caribbean (-13 points), followed by Asia and the Pacific (-10 points) and the Advanced Economies (-9 points).
● Between 1990 and 2005, approximately two thirds of the countries experienced an increase in income inequality (as measured by changes in the Gini index). In other words, the incomes of richer households have increased relative to those of poorer households. Likewise, during the same period, the income gap between the top and bottom 10 per cent of wage earners increased in 70 per cent of the countries for which data are available.
● The gap in income inequality is also widening – at an increasing pace – between the firms’ executives and the average employee. For example, in the United States in 2007, the chief executive officers (CEOs) of the 15 largest companies earned 500 times more than the average worker. This is up from 360 times more in 2003. Even in Hong Kong (China) and South Africa where executives are paid much less than their United States’ counterparts, CEO pay still represents 160 and 104 times, respectively, the wages of the average worker.


Globalization, economic policy and employment: Poverty and gender implications
James Heintz
International Labour Office, 2006/
This study - Globalization, economic policy and employment: Poverty and gender implications was initially commissioned in 2005 to take stock of recent literature and existing empirical evidence regarding economic growth, economic policies, employment and poverty through an engendered approach. Globalization is a process which affects all economies to varying degrees and has had both negative and positive influences on economic growth and employment, depending on the economic predisposition of a given economy, particularly in international trade, the set of macroeconomic policies adopted and how they are laid out in the overall development process and economic evolution. The study is, therefore, an attempt to analyse the overall impact of globalization and macroeconomic policies on employment and poverty trends with a specific gender perspective, or an attempt to engender employment and poverty implications of macroeconomic policies. The study also forms a part of the ILO’s efforts to address the social dimension of globalization, in order to promote a fair and inclusive globalizatio n through productive and decent employment for all.
-
Labour market flexibility and employment and income security in Ethiopia: Alternative considerations
Maria Sabrina de Gobbi
International Labour Office, 2006/
This study has been conducted within the framework of an ILO research project on labour market flexibility and employment and income security (often called “flexicurity”) in developing countries. The notion of “flexicurity” has been conceived and used to address labour market issues and policies in the advanced and transition economies. Applying it to developing countries, in particular to very poor countries like Ethiopia, requires some modifications to its original notion. This paper attempts to provide considerations on some of these modifications and contends that labour markets in developing countries need higher levels of security than of flexibility because of the predominant agrarian and informal nature of poor economies. It is rather obvious that in surplus-labour countries, optimal security is clearly associated with the attainment of full and productive employment of the work force. However, that goal remains a far cry for a country like Ethiopia. It is necessary to explore alternative mechanisms to provide security to the work force.
-
Wage inequality by gender and occupation: A cross-country analysis
Marva Corley, Yves Perardel and Kalina Popova
International Labour Office, 2005
This paper fills a void in the literature by providing an empirical analysis of intra- and inter-country wage inequality. There are in fact very few empirical studies comparing wages and earnings across countries in different regions, mainly because of the limited amount of comparable information and methodological data. Wage and earning indicators tend to be developed based on country- (or region-) specific criteria that are not always comparable.
The few recent empirical studies available at the cross country level show the existence of rising inequality in wages and earnings. In many high- and low/middle-income countries, the wages of high-skilled workers have increased, while those of low-skilled workers have grown relatively more slowly, fallen or remained stagnant.

International Labour Office -  Geneva    -      Report of the Director-General:
Decent Work

87th Session
Geneva, June 1999
This Report proposes a primary goal for the ILO in this period of global transition — securing decent work for women and men everywhere. It is the most widespread need, shared by people, families and communities in every society, and at all levels of development. Decent work is a global demand today, confronting political and business leadership worldwide. Much of our common future depends on how we meet this challenge.

European Commission:
Employment in Europe
The successful implementation of the European Employment Strategy (EES) (a key component of the Lisbon Strategy) requires, among other things, analytical support for the assessment and monitoring of labour market developments in the European Union. This is mainly done through the annual Employment in Europe report, which provides the basic analytical and statistical background to the EES, as well as through a wide range of analyses in the form of studies and surveys on matters of major concern to the EU citizens.
Modelling of labour markets in the European Union - Part I (literature review) - 2009
English
Modelling of labour markets in the European Union - Part II (documentation of the model) - 2009
English
Modelling of labour markets in the European Union - Part III (illustrative simulations) - 2009
English
Modelling of labour markets in the European Union - Part IV (illustrative simulations) - 2009
English
EUROSTATS - Labour market statistics

Some papers of the European Observatory on the Social Situation and Demography
The general task of the networks is to monitor and report on trends in their respective areas on the basis of EU level available data, but also reflecting existing national level analysis. Moreover, the monitoring reports convey new research results and report on recent policy developments in Member States.

Employment in Europe reports. Trends and Prospects:
2009 Employment in Europe report
The current crisis is taking its toll on EU labour markets, reversing most of the employment growth achieved since 2000, according to the 2009 Employment in Europe Report published on 23 November 2009.
2008 Employment in Europe report
The Employment in Europe report 2008, as in previous years, addresses topics that are high on the European Union's employment policy agenda. It gives a comprehensive overview of the employment situation in the EU, as well as an analysis of key labour market issues, including: - immigration - post-enlargement intra-EU labour mobility - quality of work - the link between education and employment
2007 Employment in Europe report
This is the 19th edition of the Employment in Europe report, which has become one of the main tools of the European Commission in supporting Member States in the analysis, formulation and implementation of their employment policies.
Employment in Europe traditionally provides an overview of the employment situation in the EU, and focuses on a limited number of topics that are high on the EU's employment policy agenda. The overarching themes of this year's edition are a life-cycle approach to work, flexicurity and the evolution of labour income share (i.e. the part of value added that is allocated to labour).
Employment in Europe Report 1998-2006
This database is intended to make available documents relating to European Union employment, social affairs and equal opportunities policies. In addition to EU policy documents and reports, you will find studies, speeches and descriptions of EU-funded projects.
Please note that some documents might only be available in English.

Amartya Sen:
Inequality, unemployment and contemporary Europe, 1997

These neglects are among the factors responsible for high levels of mortality among socially deprived groups in the United States. For example, African- Americans – American blacks – have a lower chance of reaching a mature age than the people of China, or Sri Lanka, or the Indian state of Kerala (see Sen, 1993). The fact that these people from the Third World are so much poorer than the United States population (and also poorer than the American black population, who are more than 20 times richer in terms of per capita income than, say, Indians in Kerala), makes the comparative disadvantage of African-Americans in survival particularly disturbing.
Incidentally, the much higher death rates of American blacks compared with American whites can be statistically established even after correcting for income variations within the United States. The mortality differentials are not connected only with death from violence, which is the stereotype that the media often portray to explain the lower longevity of African-Americans. In fact, death from violence is a big factor only for younger black men, and that, again, is only a partial explanation of the higher mortality of that group. In fact, the severe mortality disadvantages of American blacks apply sharply also to women and to older men (35 and older).

Róbinson Rojas - 1997:
The other side of China's economic miracle: unemployment/inequality

Since the counter-revolution took over in China in 1977, two main problems have been mounting: increasing unemployment and income differentiation. In September 1995, Far Eastern Economic Review published the following:
"RURAL JOBLESS THREAT. Rural unemployment poses the "biggest threat" to China, which must expand labour-intensive industries, according to a State Statistics Bureau Report. "Labour supply will continue to outweigh demand for a long time", the report said. It called China's official estimates of 100 million rural jobless inaccurate. Unofficial tallies put the number at 200 million -nearly 17% of the population".
Róbinson Rojas - 1997:
Unemployment - definitions and measurement. Trends

Since the 1970s unemployment has become the most dramatic problem for industrialized societies. Reflecting on that, the OECD's meeting at ministerial level on May 1997, worded its central theme as "promoting sustainable growth and social cohesion" social cohesion meant "reducing levels of unemployment".
The meeting stated that "eliminating high and persistent unemployment is the major economic policy challenge for most OECD countries. The Jobs Strategy review concluded that for the OECD area as a whole, unemployment has fallen only slightly from its peak in 1994 and that structural unemployment has risen. In a number of countries it is at unacceptably high levels. Ministers agreed that the bulk of this unemployment remains structural in nature, although there is also cyclical unemployment in some countries".


Labournet
Staying Alive (CorpWatch)
Holding corporations accountable

U.S.A,Canada,Japan,France, Germany,Italy,U.K,China,Russia,Ukraine:
Labour force 1970-1995
Agricultural labour force
Non-agricultural labour force
Industrial employment
Comparative statistics (International Labor Comparisons)
Comparative civilian labour force statistics. Ten countries.1959-1997

OECD.- Standardised unemployment rates. 1976-1995
Developed economies: rate of unemployment 1988-1998
R. Rojas: GDP, labour force, employment, unemployment.1870-1989. 1960-89.
Rates of inflation, unemployment and growth/1950-1996 (U.S.A.)
Rates of inflation, unemployment and growth -1960-1997 (U.K.)
UN/Social indicators: unemployment
UNRISD: Trade-related employment for women in industry and services in developing countries
U.S. Bureau of the Census:
International Comparisons of Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
Comparative Labor Force Statistics, Ten Countries, 1959-97

Comparative Unemployment Rates, Nine Countries, 1975-98
International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs for Production Workers in Manufacturing
International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs for Production Workers in Manufacturing, 1997
International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs, Supplementary Tables, 1975-97
Unpublished Hourly Compensation Costs for Production Workers in Manufacturing, 31 Countries or Areas, 40 Manufacturing Industries, 1975 and 1984-95:
International Comparisons of Manufacturing Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
International Comparisons of Manufacturing Productivity and Unit Labor Cost Trends, 1997

International Comparisons of Other Labor Statistics
Consumer Price Indexes, Sixteen Countries, 1950-97

Percent Change in Consumer Price Indexes, Nine Countries, 1975-98
Unpublished Comparative Real Gross Domestic Product per capita and per Employed Person, Fourteen Countries, 1960-1996:
T1. Real GDP Per Capita (1996 U.S. Dollars)
T2. Real GDP Per Capita (United States = 100)
T3. Real GDP Per Employed Person (1996 U.S. Dollars)
T4. Real GDP Per Employed Person (United States = 100)
T5. Real GDP per Capita and per Employed Person, Average Annual Percent Changes
T6. Purchasing Power Parities and Relative Prices


The White House Briefing Room

From International Labour Organization
Global Wage Report 2008 / 09
Minimum wages and collective bargaining
Towards policy coherence
-----
Wage employment and wages are central to the world of work. Approximately half of the global labour force works for a wage. Living standards and the livelihood of wage earners and families depend on the level of wages, when and how they are adjusted and paid. Wages are a major component of overall consumption and a key factor in the economic performance of countries.

The enormous expansion of the labour force participating directly and indirectly in the international exchange of goods and services and the growing interdependence of low-, middle- and high-income countries has squarely placed wages at the centre of the debate on globalization. It is the responsibility of the ILO to make available for public use data on levels and trends in wages around the world. This report illustrates the wide variety in recent wage trends across countries and regions, from very rapid increases in a few countries to very modest growth in many others.


ILO: Economic and labour market analysis:
Overview
Key Indicators of the Labour Market
 Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM), Sixth Edition
Published every two years since 1999, the KILM is a collection of 20 key indicators of the labour market, ranging from employment and variables relating to employment (status, sector, hours, etc.) to the lack of work and the characteristics of jobseekers, education, wages and compensation costs, labour productivity and working poverty. ...


World Employment Report
 » WER 2004-05
 » WER 2001
 » WER 1998-99
 » WER 1996/97
 » WER 1995-96

Global Employment Trends (GET) series:

With a view to developing information and analysis that is essential for promoting full, decent and productive work for all, including women and young people, the Global Employment Trends series review global and regional economic and labour market developments based on the most recently available data. The reports build on the Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM), and include a consistent set of tables with regional and global estimates of labour market indicators as generated from the Estimates and projections of labour market indicators. Each issue of Global Employment Trends also contains a short term labour market outlook based on projections or scenarios, focusing on unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty.
The reports have been published on a yearly basis since 2003, with special editions to analyze labour market trends for segments of the population such as youth (2004, 2006 and 2008) and women (2004, 2007, 2008 and 2009), or for certain regions. The January 2009 issue focused on the labour market impact of the global economic crisis. An update of the crisis impact was issued in May 2009. The gender impact of the crisis was the main subject of the Global Employment Trends for Women in March 2009.
A word of caution: Each GET, its data and analysis, is the result of a new run of the Global Employment Trends Model, which uses as input the latest available labour market information from the ILO and other sources to generate the world and regional aggregates. This means each new report is based on the best available estimates at that point in time and that the time series of world and regional aggregates from one report to the next are not comparable. The most recent GET should always be taken as the most up-to-date source of world and regional estimates of labour market information.


GET 2009 - Update May 2009
The report finds that global unemployment could increase to a range of 210 million to 239 million in 2009, an increase of between 29 million to 59 million since 2007. Although the projected spike in the level of unemployment is a major global challenge, the potential increase in vulnerable employment is even more alarming. It is estimated that half of the global workforce – 7 times more than the number of unemployed – are likely to be in vulnerable employment this year, highlighting the urgent need for policies to address the substantial decent work deficits that are likely to grow even larger as the crisis unfolds.

Global output per worker is expected to decline by between 1.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent this year, which raises concerns given the strong link between labour productivity and working poverty. The highest scenario is that more than 1.4 billion workers will be living below the USD 2 poverty line in 2009, an increase of more than 200 million since 2007. Across all three scenarios, the number of working poor projected to grow in 2009.

GET for Women, March 2009
ILO's fourth edition of the Global Employment Trends for Women

GET January 2009
The global financial crisis has triggered a serious slowdown in world economic growth including recession in the largest industrialized countries. Enterprises have stopped hiring and many are laying off workers in considerable numbers. This report examines what we know already about the impact of the crisis on jobs and what we could expect from several possible scenarios of the way it might evolve in the year ahead.

 GET 2008 - January 2008
Economic turbulence largely due to credit market turmoil and rising oil prices could spur an increase in global unemployment by an estimated 5 million persons in 2008. This is one of the main findings in the GET report 2008. This new projection for 2008 is in contrast to 2007, a watershed year in which sound global GDP growth--of more than 5 percent--, led to a "stabilization" of global labour markets with more people in work, a net increase of 45 million new jobs and only a slight increase in the number of people unemployed, to a total of 189.9 million persons worldwide. Other key findings of the GET Report are that despite growth in the economy and jobs, the worldwide deficit in decent jobs—especially for the poor—is "massive".

The Report says that five out of 10 people in the world are in vulnerable employment, either contributing family workers or own-account workers with a higher risk of being unprotected. Also, an estimated 487 million workers—or 16.4 percent of all workers — still don’t earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the US$1 per person, per day poverty line while 1.3 billion workers – 43.5 percent – still live below the US$2 per day threshold.

  GET 2007 - January 2007
The number of people unemployed worldwide remained at an historical high in 2006 despite strong global economic growth. Even though more people are working globally than ever before, the number of unemployed remained at an all time high of 195.2 million in 2006 or at a global rate of 6.3 per cent. This rate of unemployment rate was almost unchanged from the previous year. This confirmed the trend of the past several years in which robust economic growth has failed to translate into significant reductions in unemployment or poverty among those in work.

The pattern looks set to continue in 2007, with a forecast growth rate of 4.9 per cent likely to ensure that unemployment remains at about last year’s level. The persistence of joblessness at this rate is of concern, given that it will be difficult to sustain such strong economic growth indefinitely. Moreover, while the percentage of working poor in total employment declined in the past ten years, the number of working people living on US$2 a day has continued to grow in absolute numbers, reaching 1.37 billion in 2006. To make long-term inroads into unemployment and working poverty, it is essential that periods of strong growth be better used to generate more decent and productive jobs. Reducing unemployment and working poverty through creation of such jobs should be viewed as a precondition for sustained economic growth.

Some labour market challenges are the same in almost all regions: for example, young people have more difficulties in labour markets than adults and women do not get the same opportunities as men. Other challenges vary between regions, which is why this year’s Global Employment Trends Brief outlines each region’s labour market performance as well as key challenges.

 GET 2006 - January 2006
Despite robust GDP growth in 2005, labour market performance worldwide was mixed, with more people in work than in 2004 but at the same time more unemployed people than the year before. Overall the global unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3 per cent after 2 successive years of decline. At the end of 2005, 2.85 billion people aged 15 and older were in work, up 1.5 per cent over the previous year, and up 16.5 per cent since 1995.

Given that unemployment is just the tip of the iceberg, the focus in developing economies should not be solely based on unemployment alone, but also on the conditions of work of those who are employed. In 2005, of the over 2.8 billion workers in the world, nearly 1.4 billion still did not earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the US$2 a day poverty line – just as many as ten years ago. Among these working poor, 520 million lived with their families in extreme poverty on less than US$1 a day. Even though this is less than ten years ago it still means that nearly every fifth worker in the world has to face the almost impossible situation of surviving with less than US$1 a day for each family member.

This brief updates the labour market trends to 2005 and addresses six key labour market challenges: 1) energy prices; 2) the importance of labour market recovery after natural disasters; 3) the impact of the phasing out of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA); 4) global wage inequalities; 5) sectoral employment shifts; and 6) labour market challenges as a result of migration.

Changes in labour markets require constant monitoring so that appropriate policy interventions to support workers and businesses can be applied. The ILO’s annual Global Employment Trends publications aim to provide those concerned with the promotion of decent work for all with some of the basic information needed to continue to improve and target policies.

 » GET 2005 - February 2005
The global employment situation improved slightly in 2004. Global unemployment stood at 184.7 million at the end of 2004, down from a revised 185.2 million in 2003. Although the decline in unemployment is very small in percentage terms, this is a significant development, as it marks only the second time in the past decade that there was a year-over-year decline in total unemployment. In addition, the global employment-to-population ratio stabilized in 2004 at 61.8 per cent, from a revised 61.7 in 2003. The robust global economic growth rate of 5 per cent in 2004 undoubtedly played a large role in shaping these employment outcomes.

The focus of this Global Employment Trends Brief is not only on increasing employment, but also on poverty alleviation and improving the conditions of work. This brief updates the labour market trends to 2004 and addresses six key labour market challenges that are on the horizon for 2005, which are expected to impact on the global employment situation and poverty reduction. These challenges are the December 26th Asian Tsunami disaster, the HIV/AIDS epidemic, agricultural productivity in developing economies, outsourcing of employment, working conditions in the informal economy, and youth employment—all of which require immediate attention and a sustained response by governments, international organizations and civil society if we are to achieve the goal of decent and productive work for all.

 » GET 2004 - January 2004
Since the first issue of this report in January 2003, a slow economic upturn has once again resulted in a deteriorating global employment situation. For the second time, this report provides a valuable analysis of current labour market trends around the world. It incorporates the most recent information available, shedding light on possible factors contributing to the downturn affecting many workers today.

The impacts of the sluggish global recovery in 2003, of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and its effect on tourism, of the ongoing conflict in Iraq and of the worldwide threat of terrorism have been different in different regions of the world, and this report reveals how women and young people have – once again – been especially hard hit, particularly in the developing world. Covering Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, the transition economies and industrialized countries, this volume focuses on the distinct labour market characteristics and challenges faced by each region and economic group.

The report traces the various factors contributing to the global employment decline – such as the increase in employment in the informal economy, the decrease in employment in information and communication technology, as well as extensive job losses in travel and tourism and in the export and labour-intensive manufacturing sectors. Countries in fragile financial situations and those experiencing armed conflict and violence have also seen rising unemployment and poverty.

Clearly, the global employment challenges are many and some are daunting. The information provided here offers a concise picture of the current situation and of where economic growth and decent work opportunities are most needed around the world.

 » GET 2003 - January 2003
The continuing economic and uncertain economic prospects have resulted in a grim global employment situation. Incorporating the most recent data available, this volume provides valuable analysis of the current labour market trends around the world and identifies the factors contributing to the downturn affecting many workers today.

The impact of the global economic slowdown and the developments since 11 September 2001 have been different in the various regions of the world, and this report reveals how women and young people have been especially hard hit, particularly in the developing world. Covering Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, the transition economies and industrialized countries, this volume focuses on the distinct labour market characteristics and challenges faced by each region and economic group.

The report traces the various factors contributing to the global employment decline - such as the increase in employment in the informal economy, the decrease in employment in the informal economy, the decrease in employment in information and communication technology, as well as extensive job losses in the travel and tourism industries and the export and labour-intensive manufacturing sectors. Countries in fragile financial situations and those experiencing armed conflict and violence have also seen rising unemployment and poverty.

Clearly the global employment challenges are many, and the information provides here offers a concise picture of the current situation and where economic growth and decent work opportunities are needed most around the world.

Labour Market Indicators Library Network
 » Overview
 » Technical assistance
 » LMIL Database system

With a view to developing information and analysis that is essential for promoting full, decent and productive work for all, including women and young people, the Global Employment Trends series review global and regional economic and labour market developments based on the most recently available data. The reports build on the Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM), and include a consistent set of tables with regional and global estimates of labour market indicators as generated from the Estimates and projections of labour market indicators. Each issue of Global Employment Trends also contains a short term labour market outlook based on projections or scenarios, focusing on unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty.
The reports have been published on a yearly basis since 2003, with special editions to analyze labour market trends for segments of the population such as youth (2004, 2006 and 2008) and women (2004, 2007, 2008 and 2009), or for certain regions. The January 2009 issue focused on the labour market impact of the global economic crisis. An update of the crisis impact was issued in May 2009. The gender impact of the crisis was the main subject of the Global Employment Trends for Women in March 2009.
A word of caution: Each GET, its data and analysis, is the result of a new run of the Global Employment Trends Model, which uses as input the latest available labour market information from the ILO and other sources to generate the world and regional aggregates. This means each new report is based on the best available estimates at that point in time and that the time series of world and regional aggregates from one report to the next are not comparable. The most recent GET should always be taken as the most up-to-date source of world and regional estimates of labour market information.
Links to previous GET reports (by theme) Economic crisis and labour market impact
Gender: Global Employment Trends for Women Youth: Global Employment Trends for Youth Regional trends General trends reports or briefs (January editions)




UN Millennium Development Goals
World and Regional Estimates
From ILO:
Global Employment Trends 2008
(pdf)
Foreword - Acknowledgements 1. Global employment situation
2. Sub-Saharan Africa
3. North Africa
4. Middle East
5. Latin America and the Caribbean
6. East Asia
7. South-East Asia and the Pacific
8. South Asia
9. Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
10. Developed Economies and European Union
11. Summary
Appendix 1. Tables
Appendix 2. Key regional labour market indicators and policy issues
Appendix 3. Regional groupings
Figures
Figure 1. Global employment and unemployment trends, 1997-2007
Figure 2. Regional shares in worldwide net job creation in 2007
Figure 3. Sectoral employment shares (%) in the world, 1997 to 2007
Figure 4a. Labour Productivity measured as output per person employed in world regions, levels 1997 to 2007
Figure 4b. Labour Productivity measured as output per person employed in world regions, percentage change in comparison to 1997
Figure 5. Employment-to-population ratios, female and male, world and regions, 1997 and 2007
Figure 6. Unemployment rates total and youth, world and regions, 2007
Figure 7. Shares of youth population (15-24) in the working age population, world and region, 1991 and 2015
Figure 8. Status of employment shares in total employment, 2007 all regions
Boxes
Box 1. The importance of agriculture for the development process in sub-Saharan Africa
Box 2. Female Entrepreneurship: A shared challenge and chance for North Africa and the Middle East
Box 3. Social exclusion and discrimination in Latin America and the Caribbean
Box 4. Micro-level analysis of working poverty in the Philippines
Box 5. Analysing labour market vulnerability: The example of Pakistan

ILO: Global employment trends. 2004 (pdf)
International Labour Organisation
ILO: LABORSTA Internet
ILO: Main Statistics (annual)
ILO - 2002
Compendium of official statistics on employment in the informal sector

The present STAT Working Paper was prepared on the occasion of the general discussion on ‘Decent Work and the Informal Economy’ during the 90th Session of the International Labour Conference (Geneva, 4-20 June 2002). It is based on data obtained from a database on employment in the informal sector, which the ILO Bureau of Statistics established in 1998 to meet an increasing demand by users for statistics on the informal sector. The database was updated in 2001. It contains official national statistics and related methodological information on employment in the informal sector for countries of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and the Pacific, and the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, to the extent that data are available. Other countries were included only to the extent that the informal sector was considered to be of significant importance in these countries and official national statistics were collected on it.

Ralf Hussmanns -2004
WP No. 53
Measuring the informal economy: From employment in the informal sector to informal employment
The development of statistics on the informal economy helps to improve labour statistics and national accounts. The informal economy plays an important role for employment creation, income generation and poverty reduction in many countries, especially developing and transition countries. Statistics on the informal economy are needed as an evidence-based tool for research and policy-making. They enhance the visibility of the many workers in the informal economy and of their economic contribution.
The purpose of the present working paper is (i) to explain the international statistical definitions of employment in the informal sector and of informal employment, which were adopted by the Fifteenth and Seventeenth International Conferences of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) in January 1993 and December 2003, and (ii) to illustrate the practical application in household surveys of these definitions in providing examples of their translation into survey questions.


OIT: Tendencias mundiales del empleo. 2004
Organización Internacional del Trabajo
OIT: Tendences mondiales de l'emploi. 2004
Organisation Internationale du Travail

From the OIT:
Employment Trends
» Overview
» Key Indicators of the Labour Market
» World Employment Report
» Global Employment Trends
» Labour Market Indicators Library
» UN Millennium Development Goals
» World and Regional Estimates
 
Employment Analysis
» Labour market
» Globalization and Employment
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Publications


-----------------Background readings for business cycles:

Marx's analysis of capitalism. Excerpt and condensation of Chapter 6 from The Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times, and Ideas of the Great Economic Thinkers, by Robert L. Heilbroner, 7th ed., 1999, available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/crisisdb/marxsanalysis.pdf

Boratav, Korkut, 2009, A Comparison of Two Cycles in the World Economy: 1989-2007, available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/crisisdb/World_Economycycles.pdf

Fujita, S., 2003, Creative Destruction and Aggregate Productivity Growth, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia , 2003 available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/crisisdb/creativedestruction.pdf

Phillips, K.I. and J. Wrase, 2003, Is Schumpeterian "Creative Destruction" a Plausible Source of Endogenous Real Business Cycle Shocks?, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 2003, available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/crisisdb/buscycleschumpet.pdf

 

Rojas, R., 1997, The History of Economic Thought [I], section on Marx’s methodology, available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/bothec02.htm

Rojas, R., 1985, The making of a fractured society: the case of Latin America . The socioeconomic system of production, distribution, exchange and consumption. Available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/foh7.htm



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