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The political economy of development
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From The World Bank Group

Prospects for the Global Economy

April 2005
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Overview

Global growth
2004 was a record for developing country growth, but activity began to slow in the second half and this slowing trend is expected to continue through 2007.

Global imbalances, exchange rates and inflation
Higher U.S. interest rates should reverse the upward trend in the current account and prevent a disorderly decline in the dollar.  Slower growth should help moderate incipient inflationary pressure, especially among developing countries.

World trade
Trade flows are expected to remain high, but slower growth will slow the pace of export and import volume growth during 2005-07.

Commodity markets
Strong demand from developing countries is expected to keep oil and metals prices high during 2005, but these are expected to begin moderating in 2006 and 2007.

Risks and policy priorities
Exchange rate uncertainty could result in a sharp increase in interest rates or a significant misalignment of currencies, even provoking a global recession.  At the same time slower growth could slow trade liberalization or even increase protectionism to the detriment of developing countries.

 

More from The World Bank Group on the Global Economy:
Home
Overview
Forecast table
Global growth
Global imbalances, currencies and inflation
World trade
Commodity Markets
Risks and policy priorities
Regional Outlooks
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