|Transition: Achievements and
A Decade of
Transition: An Overview of the Achievements and Challenges
Saleh M. Nsouli
To take stock of the accomplishments of the transition economies over the
past 10 years and identify the challenges ahead, in February 1999 the IMF organized a
conference for high-level officials from transition countries, academics, and staff
members of international organizations. This article highlights the key issues discussed
at the conference, some of which are explored further in the articles that follow.
Lessons of the
Russian Crisis for Transition Economies
Soft budget constraints and weak administrative controls brought Russia to
the brink of hyperinflation. The lesson is to disinflate rapidly and to impose hard budget
Inflation in the Transition Economies
Carlo Cottarelli and Peter Doyle
Between 1992 and 1997, most of the transition countries succeeded in
getting inflation under control without evident cost in terms of lost output. An
understanding of the factors behind their success could not only shed light on the
transition process but also yield lessons for other countries seeking to tame inflation.
of Growth in Transition Countries
Oleh Havrylyshyn and Thomas Wolf
Perhaps the most useful criterion for assessing success in the transition
is the sustainable recovery of output, which can be achieved only by controlling inflation
and liberalizing markets.
Rethink Privatization in Transition Economies?
Privatization has won the day in transition countries . . . or has it?
Where have privatization effortsparticularly those in Central and Eastern Europe and
the former Soviet Unionsucceeded, where have they failed, and how can these
countries best pursue further privatization?
the Changing Role of Government
Over the past decade, many centrally planned economies have set out to
transform themselves into market economies. To be successful, they need to develop the
necessary institutions and ensure a proper role for government.
from Post-Soviet Inflation and Recession
The 12 CIS countries inherited from the Soviet system strong inflationary
pressures and distorted prices. By 1998, most had greatly moderated inflation. In the wake
of the Russian crisis, how can they now secure economic growth without prejudicing the
gains that have been made?
Crisis: Causes and Remedies
Bijan B. Aghevli
Until their sudden fall from grace in 1997, the countries hit hard by
Asia's financial crisisIndonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailandhad been widely
admired for their economic achievements and much favored by foreign investors. What
happened, and is there a prescription for reducing the risk of future crises?
Transition Countries Confront Financial Globalization
In recent years, many developing and transition countries have become more
closely integrated into the global financial system. But to benefit fully from their
growing access to international financing, they need to strengthen their financial
Indicators to Provide Early Warnings of Banking Crises
Bank failures and banking system crises can have very painful effects.
Developing basic indicators that provide early warnings of incipient banking crises,
therefore, is an essential step in improving countries' abilities to manage their
financial sectors and their economies.
of Predicting Economic Crises
As financial systems around the globe become increasingly integrated,
policymakers have less time to respond to swiftly moving developments. Is it possible to
develop early warning signals to help them anticipate incipient problems in currency
markets and banking systems?
The Euro and
The introduction of the euro will affect foreign exchange and financial
markets and economic activities around the world. What risks and opportunities does the
euro represent for Latin America and the Caribbean?
Extensive Is the Brain Drain?
William J. Carrington and Enrica Detragiache
How extensive is the "brain drain," and which countries and
regions are most strongly affected by it? This article estimates the extent of migration,
by level of education, from developing countries to the United States and other OECD