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RUSSIAN BUSINESS SURVEYS BULLETIN

INDUSTRY

84 SURVEY - MAY 1999

INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION   Director: Yegor Gaidar
5, Gazetny per, Moscow 103918 Russia
Tell: (+7 095) 229-93-91, Fax: 203-88-16
                 E-mail: tsukhlo@iet.ru

  • For the third month running, the survey register an absolute growth in effective demand.
  • Decrease in barter demand continues.
  • Enterprises experience an increasing lack of finished goods in stock.
  • Estimates of change in output continue to decline for the second month running.

Business Survey Results of 1012 Enterprises.

May 1999

(percentages of total answers)

What has been the trends over the PAST 2-3 months:

Up

Same

Down

N/A

Balance

Volume of output

33

48

18

1

+15

Average prices

35

61

3

1

+32

Order-books level (effective)

22

66

11

1

+11

Order-books level (barter)

8

65

18

9

-10

Do you consider that in volume terms:

Above normal

Nor-
mal

Below normal

N/A

Balance

Your present production

1

30

68

1

-67

Your total order book

4

23

71

2

-67

Your export order book

2

30

39

29

-37

Your present stocks of finished goods

17

35

40

8

-23

What are the expected trends for the NEXT 2-3 months:

Up

Same

Down

N/A

Balance

Volume of output 37 50 11 2 +26
Average prices 38 56 2 4 +36
Volume of order book level(effective)

23

61

11

5

12

Volume of order book level (barter)

9

58

21

12

-12

Assessment of current situation

For the third month running, the survey register an absolute growth in effective demand. In May, reports regarding growth in sales prevail in all the industry branches, except for the wood-working, light and food sectors. The growth pace was highest in the ferrous metallurgy, chemicals and petrochemicals. The share of estimates of the demand volume as normal grew up to 23% and became the best index registered since early 1995.

Decrease in barter demand which started yet in March still continues. In May, the growth in barter transactions was registered only in the industry of construction materials, while other industry branches show prevalence of responses regarding a fall in such transactions.

The growth in industrial output continues, however, in May its intensity fell notably. The respective fall was noted in all the industry branches, but the non-ferrous metallurgy and construction industry, while an absolute downfall of output was reported only by the forestry, paper and pulp, wood-working, and light industry branches.

Enterprises experience an increasing lack of finished goods in stock. In May, only 17% of enterprises estimated their stock as excessive, while in early 1994 the share of the respective responses had made up 58%. The deficit of stocks is observed in all the industry branches, while the most substantial one is noted in the light and machine- building sectors.

Price dynamics did not experience any significant changes in May.

Predictions and expectations

Having peaked an absolute maximal value in March, estimates of change in output continue to decline for the second month running, however hopes for growth in output still prevail in the industrial sector. It is the construction industry, wood-working sector and ferrous metallurgy which project the most intensive growth in their output, while the light and food industry branches’ projections are most moderate.

Projections of changes in prices continue to fluctuate in the wake of the actual price dynamics. In May, a decrease in projected values was registered in all the industry branches, with the exception for the industry of construction materials.

Projections of change in effective demand remain generally positive - enterprises hope for a growth in monetary sales. It is only wood-working, light and food sectors the projections of which are negative ( fall in sales).

Projections of change in barter demand have become definitely negative for the first time- the share of enterprises envisaging a fall in barter transactions for the first time has exceeded the share of those ones which expect a growing number of such transactions. Positive projections remained only in the wood-working and construction industry branches.

May 28, 1999

Sergey Tsukhlo,
Chief, Business Surveys Department

Charts of next Issue: price expectations in subsectors

Output expectations in subsectors (balance=up-down)

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